"A Cornered Rat Will Bite the Cat” – Why Brexit Will Always be a Success
As the old idiom goes “A cornered Rat will bite the Cat” and the E.U’s hostile stance towards the U.K in recent days and weeks, clearly demonstrate that Europe is starting out talks in defence mode.
From the triggering of Article 50 to May’s now infamous dinner with Junker, Britain has stated continually that they wish to approach negotiations in a “constructive manner and with a huge amount of goodwill”; An attitude that has not been reciprocated by E.U elites.
From the (allegedly false) leaks by the E.U to a myriad of jibes towards the “Delusional” UK, Europe has recurrently lashed out at Britain, in an attempt to destroy public confidence that Brexit can be a success.
The E.U’s reckless stirring up of sectarian tensions, by making comments about a united Ireland and an independent Scotland, showcase perfectly how low the European Union is willing to sink - in order to ensure the British people and economy suffer.
But this reaction is telling. If there truly was a way to cripple the U.K in the form of a trade deal or the blocking of any agreement at all, there would be little to no need whatsoever for the E.U to be so hostile and defensive.
If Brexit couldn’t be made a success of, a haughty E.U would simply offer us the rope in which to hang ourselves. Showing the rest of the disgruntled E.U nations that national sovereignty cannot be achieved without significant pain and suffering; or as Donald Tusk put it “no cakes only salt and vinegar”.
Europe knows that losing the U.K is a significant blow; not only in terms of the political shockwave it could cause, but of course in financial terms. No matter how Europe attempts to spin their strengths, the fact of the matter still remains that the trade deficit between the U.K and the E.U is enormous and stands at a whopping £60 billion - Meaning we significantly buy more from them than they buy from us.
Even if no deal was reached, and WTO rules and tariffs were applied to trade between the U.K and the E.U, the cost for Europe would be astronomically higher than the U.K. Germany alone would face a bill of £3.4 billion in tariffs under WTO, where as the U.K would only pay £0.9 .
Of course this would still cause the U.K to incur costs due to Brexit, but studies have shown that in almost every sector the E.U would be worse off than the U.K - in terms of tariffs. Also, being a sovereign nation, it would be significantly easier for Britain to adjust its tariff schedule in a favourable way to U.K businesses; whereas it is far more difficult for the E.U to alter its own tariff schedule.
Conflating these figures with the news that the Chancellor, Phillip Hammond, is said to be ready to drop the corporation tax rate to 12% means that Britain will be able to stay attractive to global businesses who want a HQ in the U.K - which in turn will bolster jobs and bring more money into the economy. While the drop in the Pound against the Euro will in turn put significant pressure on European manufacturers exporting to the U.K or competing for business with their British counterparts.
Allowing the U.K to ‘walk away’ would be beyond punishing for Europe and leave the bloc far worse off. But similarly, the political ramifications of allowing tariff free trade without freedom of movement would be seismic and could potentially lead to an exodus of some of the largest nations in the Union (i.e. France & Italy).
With Brexit, Britain has called the E.U’s bluff and pushed Brussels into a corner, which is why we are seeing such vitriol, name calling and political pot suturing by the E.U in British internal affairs. Europe is doing all it can to derail the process so we are too afraid to leave.
The cornered Rat is baring its teeth in a bid to save itself from certain death. Britain must remain steadfast and realise Brexit will always be a success; be it in the form of an amicable trade deal or a clean and Hard Brexit. Even the E.U knows it, why do you think they are so upset?